Wednesday, 29 December 2010
Swine flu - The perfect storm
A ‘perfect storm’ of winter illness will batter Britain’s health services today.
Hospitals will be pushed to breaking point by a post-Christmas deluge of patients suffering from flu and the winter vomiting bug.
Accident and emergency departments are bracing themselves for a surge of referrals as GP practices open for the first time after the extended bank holiday weekend.
They are also expecting high numbers of elderly patients to be brought in as they are visited by care workers for the first time in four days.
Soaring levels of both seasonal and swine flu will heap extra strain on hospitals already dealing with cases of the sickness bug norovirus, which usually peak at this time of year.
It is feared many potentially seriously ill patients will have waited until after the four-day weekend to see their doctor, pushing services to the limit.
The swine flu outbreak sparked a furious war of words last night as Health Minister Simon Burns accused Labour of exploiting the virus for political ends.
He rejected claims by Shadow Health Secretary John Healey that the Government had ‘cancelled’ a flu jab plan for under-fives to save money.
Mr Burns insisted that ministers ruled out a blanket vaccination programme for youngsters on medical grounds.
But as the virus continued to sweep the country yesterday, an expert warned that Britain is on the ‘cusp’ of an epidemic.
Virologist professor John Oxford, from the University of London, said that because two-thirds of the population did not get swine flu during the last two outbreaks, they risk falling victim now.
Dr Jim Wardrope, former president of the College of Emergency Medicine, who works at the Northern General Hospital in Sheffield, warned today would be one of the busiest of the year for hospitals.
‘There is usually a peak after bank holiday weekends and this one has lasted four days,’ he said. ‘There is definitely extra pressure at the moment.
‘We have a perfect storm of flu and norovirus and the last few days have been extremely busy. It’s the same for departments across the country.’
He explained that hospitals normally experience a peak in referrals from GPs following a bank holiday weekend as many patients are reluctant to use out-of-hours services and would rather wait for a routine appointment.
The influx comes as the head of the Royal College of GPs urged vulnerable patients to get the vaccine amid fears that Britain is on the brink of an epidemic.
Dr Clare Gerada said stocks of the jab arrived in most surgeries on Christmas Eve so there were currently enough supplies, and manufacturers were able to fill more orders.
Professor John Oxford said that huge numbers of people travelling to see family and friends over Christmas and New Year were carrying flu infections to different areas.
He added that it was possible children going back to school would also trigger a surge in flu cases.
This year’s seasonal flu vaccine contains protection against H1N1 and two other strains of flu virus, but uptake has been lower than expected in ‘at risk’ groups.
Around 45 per cent of those with underlying medical conditions have had the jab.
But only one in four pregnant women have done so – despite being four times more likely to develop potentially deadly breathing problems caused by swine flu.



